The Profitability Puzzle: Unpacking the Box Office Performance of "Sinners"
The release of Ryan Coogler’s "Sinners" has sparked a heated debate about the film’s box office performance, with some critics questioning its profitability. According to a report by IndieWire, the film’s opening weekend take has been subject to scrutiny, with some suggesting that the media is spinning its performance in unfair ways.
In an interview with IndieWire, Coogler himself addressed the issue, stating that he was not surprised by the scrutiny. "I think it’s just a reflection of the way that people perceive our film," he said. The film’s production budget was reportedly $90 million, and marketing costs are estimated to be around $45 million, bringing the total cost to $135 million. To break even, "Sinners" would need to earn around $270 million worldwide, considering that theaters typically take half of the box office earnings.
IndieWire reports that the film’s performance has been impressive, with a 98 percent Rotten Tomatoes score and a 97 percent audience score. The film also received an "A" CinemaScore grade and an A+ from the valuable under 18 demo. Comscore senior analyst Paul Dergarabedian told IndieWire that he will be looking closely at the film’s midweek grosses and how it drops off into weekend two, noting that the word of mouth is strong enough that it has the chance to work toward a much higher domestic multiple.
The film’s success has also been attributed to its strong performance in IMAX screens, with IndieWire reporting that it made $9.1 million in North America on IMAX screens, including over $1 million in 70mm showings. This marks the biggest horror opening for an IMAX film ever, and it’s in the top 10 all time for IMAX openings.
IndieWire also notes that "Sinners" has some great word of mouth, with audiences and critics alike praising the film. Warner Bros. also says it’s tracking ahead of movies like "Nope" internationally, suggesting it could have a longer runway abroad. In the coming weeks, it won’t have major competition on traditional or premium large format (PLF) screens until "Thunderbolts" opens in May, so it can still command a lot of additional revenue from IMAX.
Dergarabedian suspects that, despite its premium formats, it’s likely Coogler’s film does very well on the small screen. When "Sinners" eventually opens on PVOD, studios get a much higher share of the revenue on purchases or rentals than they would from movie theaters, and studios are often playing the long game between theaters, PVOD, subscription streaming, and other licensing before seeing something truly make its way out of the red.
As IndieWire points out, "Sinners" is not the first expensive and ambitious passion project from a big name filmmaker that Warner Bros. has released. However, Coogler is an interesting case and likely doesn’t deserve to be in that group. He’s an auteur, but he’s also made his career on the biggest IP around, with "Black Panther" and "Creed." He’s a commercial hitmaker who makes movies that resonate with pop culture. So far, "Sinners" has passed those tests with flying colors. More money can’t be far behind.
In conclusion, the box office performance of "Sinners" has been subject to scrutiny, but IndieWire reports that the film’s performance has been impressive, with strong word of mouth and a successful run in IMAX screens. The film’s profitability is still uncertain, but it’s clear that "Sinners" has the potential to be a commercial success. As the film continues to play in theaters and eventually opens on PVOD, it will be interesting to see how it performs in the coming weeks.
The film’s success can also be measured by its cultural impact, with IndieWire reporting that it’s the biggest opening for an original horror film since Jordan Peele’s "Us" in 2019. It’s also worth noting that "Sinners" is not just a horror film, but a genre-bending period horror film that explores themes of Black art and culture.
Overall, "Sinners" is a film that has sparked a lot of interest and debate, and its box office performance will be closely watched in the coming weeks. With its strong word of mouth and successful run in IMAX screens, it’s clear that "Sinners" has the potential to be a commercial success.
