Canada’s NDP faces wipeout in upcoming election, posing risks for country’s politics and economy
Canada’s left-wing New Democratic Party (NDP) is on the brink of an electoral disaster, according to a report by the New Statesman. Even before the federal election was called in March, the party’s prospects looked bleak, with polls showing an average of 11 per cent support. As election day approaches, the NDP’s average has dropped to 9 per cent, putting the party at risk of losing most of its 24 seats in parliament.
The potential wipeout of the NDP would not only be devastating for the party but also have significant implications for Canada’s politics and economy. As the New Statesman notes, the NDP has played a crucial role in forcing the Liberal minority government under Justin Trudeau to implement key policies, including prescription drug care, dental care, and daycare programmes. The party has also been a vocal advocate for workers’ rights, pushing for an anti-scab law and paid sick days for workers in federally regulated industries.
"The NDP has provided a left opposition to liberal – and Liberal – politics," writes the New Statesman. "It’s been an imperfect one, but an opposition nonetheless." The party’s influence has been particularly important in recent times, as Canada faces significant economic risks from Donald Trump’s tariff war and a potential recession.
The NDP’s leader, Jagmeet Singh, has acknowledged the party’s challenges, shifting his messaging focus to the need for a strong NDP presence in the legislature to keep the government honest and deliver for poor people and workers. However, the party’s efforts have not translated into electoral advantage, with some in the party seemingly believing that cooperation with the Liberals would demonstrate their readiness to govern.
The New Statesman suggests that the NDP’s strategy during the last parliament may have been misguided, citing the example of Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats in the UK, who were rewarded for their efforts with a significant loss of support. "They misread, misunderstood, or ignored the long history of cooperative junior parties in parliamentary democracies who are rewarded for their efforts with a hearty thanks for the memories and a shove out the door," writes the New Statesman.
A minority parliament remains a possibility, with the election being closely contested between the front runners. However, even if the NDP manages to secure a few seats, the party’s influence is likely to be limited. The Quebec-based Bloc Québécois is expected to finish ahead of the NDP in seat count, leaving the party with limited options for forming alliances.
If the NDP is reduced to fewer than 12 seats, Singh will face immense pressure to resign. A movement to replace him is already emerging, with some questioning his decision not to bring down the government last autumn when the party was higher in the polls.
The potential wipeout of the NDP poses significant risks for Canada’s politics and economy. As the New Statesman notes, the party has played a crucial role in holding the government to account and advocating for progressive policies. Without a strong NDP presence in parliament, the Liberal government may be less inclined to implement policies that benefit workers and the poor.
In conclusion, the NDP’s potential wipeout in the upcoming election poses significant risks for Canada’s politics and economy. The party’s influence has been crucial in shaping the country’s progressive agenda, and its absence will be deeply felt. As the New Statesman concludes, "If it is to happen, it would at least allow for – indeed, demand – an ideological, strategic, and tactical overhaul. That would be very welcome indeed."
This article is based on a report by the New Statesman, which can be found at https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/2025/04/canada-left-ndp-poised-for-a-wipeout.
