Tactical Voting to Stop Reform May Hamper Farage in Local Elections
A surge in tactical voting is expected to hinder Reform UK’s progress in Thursday’s local elections, with some Conservative voters reportedly planning to vote Labour or Liberal Democrat to block the party’s advances. This phenomenon could have significant implications for Nigel Farage’s party, particularly in key contests such as the Runcorn and Helsby byelection and the mayoral election in Hull and East Yorkshire.
According to a report by The Guardian, campaigners believe that the rise of Reform UK, which has been regularly topping national opinion polls, has boosted tactical voting, with some voters motivated by the prospect of a future Reform-Conservative alliance. In the Runcorn byelection, Labour campaigners have reported not only Liberal Democrat and Green supporters promising to back Labour to thwart Reform, but also Conservatives saying the same.
The Labour party has been targeting centrist Conservatives in the Runcorn constituency, who are thought to be disenchanted with the Conservative party’s rightward shift under the influence of Farage’s Reform UK. "A big part of our operation has been to try to squeeze the Tory vote there," a Labour source told The Guardian. "It is happening, but to what extent remains to be seen." The source added that talk of a future alliance between the Conservatives and Reform has helped push the message, with some traditional Tories objecting to the Conservative party’s new direction.
In the Hull and East Yorkshire mayoral election, the Liberal Democrats have been campaigning heavily on the idea that they are the only party that can stop Reform UK. The party has been using a postcode-by-postcode campaign, targeting areas where they believe there is a strong "stop Reform" vote. "For a lot of voters, Reform are so far off the deep end that it motivates people," a Lib Dem official told The Guardian. "They’re less interested in policies, it’s more: ‘Our number one priority is to stop Reform, if you can do that we’ll vote for you.’"
The results in Runcorn and the mayoral elections, as well as the wider council votes, will be closely watched for signs of how well the Reform UK election machine is working, as well as for the emergence of any informal anti-Reform coalition. While a combined Reform and Conservative polling share would be above 45%, strategists from other parties believe that any pact between the two would make tactical voting even more prevalent.
Farage has sought to manage expectations before the polls open on Thursday, acknowledging that his party lacks the experience and expertise of Labour in on-the-ground campaigning. However, campaigners from other parties believe that Reform UK has mustered a significant team of campaigners to knock on doors, augmented by a heavy spend on paid-for mailed leaflets and social media advertising. As The Guardian reports, the outcome of these elections will have significant implications for the future of Reform UK and its potential to disrupt the Conservative party’s vote.
The local elections are also seen as a test of the Conservative party’s resilience in the face of a resurgent Reform UK. As The Guardian notes, the party is facing an "extinction-level event" in some areas, with voters turning to Reform UK in significant numbers. The outcome of these elections will provide a crucial indicator of the Conservative party’s ability to hold its ground against the insurgent Reform UK.
The local elections will take place on Thursday, with results expected overnight and throughout Friday.
