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Can Schwellenbach Beat the Odds with Order Penalty?


Atlanta Braves Daily Question: Spencer Schwellenbach’s Times Through the Order Penalty

The Atlanta Braves have been fortunate to have Spencer Schwellenbach on their roster, with the pitcher having a phenomenal start to his career, boasting a 3.6 career fWAR in 192 innings. According to Battery Power, Schwellenbach’s performance has been impressive, with an 81 ERA-, 87 FIP-, and 82 xFIP-.

Schwellenbach’s Pitch Arsenal

One of the key factors contributing to Schwellenbach’s success is his arsenal of six pitches, all of which get some play. As noted by Battery Power, this is a rare attribute among pitchers, and it has been effective in keeping hitters guessing. However, his times through the order splits look relatively normal, which may seem surprising given his diverse pitch arsenal.

Times Through the Order Penalty

The times through the order penalty is a well-documented phenomenon in baseball, where hitters tend to perform better against pitchers as they see them multiple times. Battery Power reports that Schwellenbach’s 1TTO performance is significantly better than his baseline, even relative to the league, while his 3TTO performance is worse than his baseline, especially in terms of homers yielded.

Schwellenbach’s Pitch Usage

To understand Schwellenbach’s performance, it’s essential to examine his pitch usage. Battery Power provides a breakdown of Schwellenbach’s pitch usage against righties and lefties, revealing that he adjusts his pitch mix as he faces hitters multiple times. Against righties, Schwellenbach relies more on his four-seamer and slider early in the game, while incorporating more cutters, curveballs, and splitters as the game progresses.

Schwellenbach’s Performance Against Righties and Lefties

According to Battery Power, Schwellenbach dominates righties, with his performance against them largely immune to the times through the order penalty. However, his performance against lefties is more challenging, with a significant decline in effectiveness as they see him multiple times. Schwellenbach’s HR/FB "issues" and overall "challenges" appear to be concentrated in facing lefties the second and third times through the order.

Conclusion

In conclusion, Spencer Schwellenbach’s performance is a fascinating case study, with his diverse pitch arsenal and adaptability in pitch usage contributing to his success. However, his performance against lefties remains a work in progress, and it will be interesting to see how he evolves to overcome the challenges he faces. As Battery Power notes, Schwellenbach’s ability to dominate righties has been a key factor in his success, and it will be crucial for the Braves to manage game states effectively to maximize his strengths.

The Atlanta Braves’ record currently stands at 25-27, with a wOBA and xwOBA of .265 and .253, respectively. Yesterday’s game saw the team allow 3 homers, and their record when out-xwOBAing is 16-11. As the season progresses, it will be essential for the Braves to continue monitoring Schwellenbach’s performance and adjust their strategy accordingly.



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