Cavaliers vs Heat: NBA Playoffs Series Preview
The highly anticipated NBA playoffs series between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Miami Heat is set to tip off on Sunday night. The Cavaliers, who finished with the second-most victories in franchise history, are looking to make a deep run in the playoffs. Meanwhile, the Heat, who qualified for the playoffs through the SoFi NBA Play-In Tournament, are seeking to pull off an upset.
According to NBA.com, the Cavaliers were the best team in the Eastern Conference from the start of the season, winning their first 15 games and running off two other winning streaks of at least 12 games. They finished with the second-most victories in franchise history. The Heat, on the other hand, had a more tumultuous season, but they showed grit and determination in the Play-In Tournament, winning two road games to qualify for the playoffs.
The Cavaliers won two of their three regular-season meetings with the Heat, and they will be well-rested when the series begins on Sunday night. However, as NBA.com notes, this is probably the last of the four East Play-In teams that the Cavaliers wanted to see in the first round. The Heat are a resilient team that can make things difficult for any opponent, but the Cavaliers have a better defense and more offensive weapons.
One of the key storylines in this series is the Cavaliers’ offense, which was the second-most efficient in NBA history, scoring 121.0 points per 100 possessions. They ranked second in both field goal percentage in the paint (60.7%) and 3-point percentage (38.3%), with a league-high eight players who shot the league average (36.0%) or better on at least 200 3-point attempts. However, as NBA.com points out, the Cavaliers’ offense struggled in the playoffs last season, scoring just 104.7 points per 100 possessions.
The Heat’s defense will be put to the test in this series, as they face one of the best offenses in the league. According to NBA.com, the Heat have had a top-10 defense for the sixth straight season, but they allowed 101.0 points per 100 possessions in their two Play-In games.
In terms of key players to watch, Tyler Herro will be a crucial factor for the Heat. He led the team in time of possession, usage rate, scoring, and assists, and had 34 points and seven assists in Miami’s nine-point win over the Cavaliers in December. The Cavaliers will need to find a way to defend Herro, who can be a difficult player to contain.
Another key factor in this series will be rebounding. The Cavaliers ranked 22nd in defensive rebounding percentage in the regular season, while the Heat ranked 27th in offensive rebounding percentage. According to NBA.com, field goal percentage is typically lower in the playoffs than it is in the regular season, and more missed shots lead to more available rebounds. Therefore, the team that can control the glass will have a significant advantage.
The Heat will also need to find secondary scorers to support Herro. Davion Mitchell provided some unexpected offense in the two Play-In games, and Bam Adebayo’s ability to make jump shots will be crucial. Adebayo took 36% of his shots from outside the paint, which is the highest rate of his career.
In terms of a key number to know, the Heat played the most zone of any team in the league, doing so on 14.6% of their defensive possessions. According to NBA.com, the Cavaliers’ offense actually saw the second-fewest zone possessions this season, but almost half of them (72/150) came against Miami. The Cavaliers didn’t score as efficiently against zone as they did overall, but they did score more efficiently against the Heat’s zone than the rest of the league did.
The series schedule is as follows:
- Game 1: Heat at Cavaliers (Sun. April 20, 7 ET, TNT)
- Game 2: Heat at Cavaliers (Wed. April 23, 7:30 ET, NBA TV)
- Game 3: Cavaliers at Heat (Sat. April 26, 1 ET, TNT)
- Game 4: Cavaliers at Heat (Mon. April 28, TBD)
- Game 5: Heat at Cavaliers (Wed. April 30, TBD)*
- Game 6: Cavaliers at Heat (Fri. May 2, TBD)*
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Game 7: Heat at Cavaliers (Sun. May 4, TBD)*
- = If necessary
The NBA.com preview concludes by picking the Cavaliers to win the series in five games. With their better defense and more offensive weapons, the Cavaliers should take care of business to advance to the conference semifinals for the second straight year.
As noted by NBA.com, the Heat have won six of their last seven games on the road, but they face a tough opponent in the Cavaliers. The Cavaliers’ offense is one of the best in the league, and their defense should be able to contain the Heat’s offense.
Overall, this series has the potential to be a closely contested and exciting matchup. The Cavaliers will look to use their efficient offense to take down the Heat, while Miami will seek to use their grit and determination to pull off an upset.
The views on this page do not necessarily reflect the views of the NBA, its clubs or Warner Bros. Discovery. John Schuhmann is a senior stats analyst for NBA.com. You can e-mail him here, find his archive here and follow him on X.
