Duterte Family’s Political Fortunes Revitalised in Philippine Midterms
The recent Philippine midterm elections have dealt a significant blow to the administration of President Ferdinand Marcos Jr, with the Duterte family’s political dynasty emerging stronger than expected. Despite being detained 11,000km away in The Hague and facing charges of crimes against humanity, former President Rodrigo Duterte was elected in absentia as mayor of his hometown in Davao City.
According to a report by the Financial Times, Duterte’s detention and charges were not enough to prevent him from being re-elected as mayor, a position he last held in 2016. His daughter, Sara Duterte, who is currently vice-president, has also been boosted by the election results and is now in the running for a presidential election in 2028. The elections have shown that "the Dutertes are still a dominant dynasty", said Maria Victoria Maglana, an activist who lost a congressional race in Davao to Duterte’s son Paolo.
The Financial Times reports that the midterm polls have revitalised the Duterte family’s political fortunes, putting Sara Duterte in a strong position to contest the 2028 presidential election. This could have far-reaching consequences for regional security and disputes in the South China Sea. The results could also threaten the administration of President Marcos Jr, who has been locked in a bitter rivalry with the Duterte clan.
The elections have shown that support for the Dutertes was driven by voters’ sympathy for the ageing former president and a perception that his family was being persecuted by Marcos, who is the son of the Philippines’ former dictator. "Many of them believe that what happened to him was unfair, and given his age, and that he is a former president, respect should have been provided to him," said Ramon Beleno III, an independent political analyst.
The Financial Times notes that Duterte was arrested by Philippine authorities in March and handed over to the custody of the International Criminal Court over his deadly war on drugs, which rights groups say killed up to 30,000 people. Sara Duterte, who ascended to the vice-presidency in 2022 in an electoral pact with Marcos, is under separate investigation in Manila for alleged misuse of government funds.
The elections have also seen the Duterte family’s influence expand, with two of Duterte’s grandchildren elected to regional positions in Davao, bringing the total number of family members holding public office to at least six. The results have also dealt a blow to President Marcos Jr’s administration, with allies of the Dutertes securing enough support in the senate to block Sara Duterte’s impeachment.
According to the Financial Times, a Sara Duterte presidency could see Manila pursue closer ties with China, which would mark a revival of the elder Duterte’s policy and a big shift from Marcos, who has taken an assertive stance against Beijing’s territorial claims in the South China Sea and has strengthened defence ties with the US and its allies. However, she would first need to survive the impeachment inquiry, which is set to begin in July.
The Financial Times quotes Peter Mumford, Eurasia Group’s head of south-east Asia, as saying that Sara Duterte needs nine senators in the 24-seat chamber to oppose impeachment or abstain from the vote in order to avoid her removal from office. "After the midterms, it seems there will be eight senators likely to side with the vice-president or abstain, so she just needs to flip one," he said.
The article, as reported by the Financial Times, highlights the fluidity of Philippine politics, where personalities dominate rather than parties. The midterms have set the stage for a fierce battle for the 2028 presidential election, with the Duterte family’s influence likely to be a major factor.
As noted by the Financial Times, the election results have significant implications for the country and the region. The Duterte family’s continued influence in Philippine politics is likely to shape the country’s relationships with its neighbours and the wider international community.
The Financial Times’ reporting on the Philippine midterm elections provides valuable insights into the country’s complex and often unpredictable politics. The article highlights the ongoing rivalry between the Duterte and Marcos families, which is likely to continue to shape Philippine politics for years to come.
The article also notes that Imee Marcos, a senator and the president’s sister, defected from her family camp to back the Dutertes in the midterm polls, which further reflects the fluidity of Philippine politics.
Sara Duterte’s call for a renewed beginning after the election results, as per the Financial Times, could be seen as a sign of her intentions to run for the presidency in 2028. If she does, it will be interesting to see how her campaign unfolds and how the country responds to her potential candidacy.
Additional reporting by Guill Ramos in Manila for the Financial Times.
