The World to Come: Economic Uncertainty and Global Trends
We live in times marked by instability, volatility, and unease. The tremendous shock of thinking that our life, our model, our system, was dominated by security and prosperity has hit us hard. Almost overnight, the old ghosts that have haunted humanity since its origins have reappeared on the scene. The four horsemen of the Apocalypse, born in the New Testament, ride again on the back of war, hunger, pestilence, and death.
According to an article by Articulo 14, Vicente Blasco Ibáñez, a literary genius not sufficiently recognised by history, wrote a masterpiece novel, "The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse", which was later adapted into a film starring Rudolph Valentino. The article highlights that the silhouettes of these four horsemen are being drawn on the horizon of humanity once again.
In a recent report, a team of economists from Deutsche Bank (DB) updated their projections for the global economy, predicting a period of disorder that could last for 25 years. The report, titled "The Era of Disorder", was authored by Jim Reid, Nick Burns, Luke Templeman, Henry Allen, and Karthik Nagalingam. The article in Articulo 14 notes that the report’s conclusions seem to be gaining more sense in the current moment, as the world faces economic turbulence triggered by the Trump administration’s policies.
The DB economists identified six major cycles in the last 160 years of economic life:
- The first globalisation (1860-1914)
- The Great Wars and the Depression (1914-1945)
- Bretton Woods and the return to the gold standard
- The era of fiat money and high inflation (1971-1980)
- The second era of globalisation (1980-2020)
- The era of disorder (2020-XXXX)
The article in Articulo 14 highlights that many of us who have lived through several of these stages recognise the current era of disorder. The DB team predicts that this period will be marked by eight trends:
- Trade tensions between the US and China
- Consolidation or deterioration of the European Union
- Increasing debt
- Inflation or deflation
- Growing inequality
- Widening intergenerational divide
- Debate on climate change
- Technological revolution or bubble
As noted in the Articulo 14 article, the DB economists warn that the era of disorder will make it difficult to maintain high returns on capital and bonds, especially in real terms. They also note that demographic decline will pose significant challenges for Europe, which will try to maintain its economic and geopolitical influence despite facing a demographic disadvantage.
In conclusion, the world is facing a period of economic uncertainty and global trends that are likely to shape the future. As Articulo 14 reports, the DB economists’ predictions offer a nuanced understanding of the challenges ahead, highlighting the need for adaptability and resilience in the face of an increasingly complex and interconnected world.
The article in Articulo 14 quotes the DB economists as saying that "if artificial intelligence becomes a driver of productivity, as it did in previous industrial revolutions, it should increase for the entire global economy". This statement underscores the importance of technological innovation in shaping the future of the global economy.
The Articulo 14 article provides a detailed analysis of the DB report, highlighting the key trends and challenges that will shape the world in the coming years. As the world navigates this era of disorder, it is essential to stay informed and up-to-date with the latest developments and trends.
In the words of the Articulo 14 article, "many questions remain for an uncertain future". The DB economists’ report offers a valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead, and serves as a timely reminder of the need for vigilance and adaptability in the face of an increasingly complex and interconnected world.
