US Pivot Away from Europe: A New Era for Defence
The United States’ shift in focus away from Europe and towards Asia has sparked concerns among European leaders about the future of their security. According to analysis by the BBC, this pivot, which has been underway for some time, is unlikely to change regardless of the outcome of the next US election.
The roots of this shift date back to 2012, when then-US President Barack Obama stated his desire to focus his foreign policy on Asia. As the BBC reports, "Trump or no Trump, concentrating foreign policy on Asia and withdrawing substantially from Europe is unlikely to change… especially as there is now a growing reluctance in US public opinion to carry the burden of financing allies." This view is echoed by Ambassador Wittig, who describes it as "the end of an era – the end of engagement in Europe".
European leaders are recognising that it is high time they take more responsibility for paying and providing for their own defence capabilities, rather than relying on Washington. As Ambassador Zantovsky notes, this presents "an opportunity brought about by crisis, a sense of urgency regarding security that hasn’t existed [in Europe] for the last 30 years". However, analysts warn that boosting defence capabilities will require significant investment, with some estimating that European nations would need to spend 4% or 5% of their gross domestic product on defence to wean themselves off US security support.
The challenge facing European nations is that, unlike during the Cold War, they now have ageing populations and more extensive welfare states. As the BBC notes, "spending 4% or 5% of gross domestic product on defence was do-able" during the Cold War, but it is unclear if present-day voters would accept the necessary compromises, such as cuts in government spending on health or education, to boost defence capabilities.
Some experts, including historian and biographer Sir Anthony Seldon, are calling for a new generation of political leaders to step up to the challenge. "We need a new generation of political leaders who are up to the challenge," he says. "A need can often bring forward the right people." Seldon reflects on the experience of European and US leaders in the aftermath of World War II, suggesting that a sense of urgency can galvanise leaders to take action.
The question on many minds is whether a transitional path exists from the current US-led Nato to a more European Nato, with the US still involved but Europe taking responsibility for its own security. As Timothy Garton Ash, a professor of European studies, wonders, "We need a new generation of political leaders who are up to the challenge." The future of European security is uncertain, and it remains to be seen whether European leaders can rise to the challenge.
As the BBC reports, surviving World War II veterans, now in their 80s, fervently hope that Europe will not have to go through another devastating conflict to realise the importance of working together. As Sir Anthony Seldon poignantly asks, "Do we have to go to war periodically to realise how terrible it is, and to force us to work together?" The answer, for now, remains uncertain.
