India and Pakistan on Brink of Escalation: A Dangerous New Chapter in Their Troubled History
In a dramatic and unsettling turn of events, India and Pakistan have launched a series of missile and air strikes across the Line of Control (LoC), the de facto border between the two nations. The escalation, which began in the early hours of Wednesday, has sent shockwaves through the region, with residents on both sides of the border jolted awake by thunderous explosions.
According to reports from the BBC, India launched a series of precision strikes on nine sites across Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, targeting what it called militant positions based on "credible intelligence". The strikes, which lasted just 25 minutes, were aimed at re-establishing deterrence and sending a strong message to Pakistan-based terrorists and external actors.
Pakistan, however, has claimed that only six locations were hit and that it had shot down five Indian fighter jets and a drone. Islamabad also reported that 26 people were killed and 46 injured in Indian air strikes and shelling across the LoC. Meanwhile, India’s army reported that 10 civilians were killed by Pakistani shelling on its side of the de facto border.
This sharp escalation comes after last month’s deadly militant attack on tourists in Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, which pushed tensions between the nuclear-armed rivals to dangerous new heights. India has claimed that it has clear evidence linking Pakistan-based terrorists and external actors to the attack, a claim Pakistan flatly denies.
As the situation continues to unfold, experts are warning of the dangers of further escalation. "What’s striking this time is the expansion of India’s targets beyond past patterns," Srinath Raghavan, a Delhi-based historian, told the BBC. "This time, India has hit into Pakistan’s Punjab, across the International Border, targeting terrorist infrastructure, headquarters, and known locations in Bahawalpur and Muridke linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba."
The India-Pakistan International Border is the officially recognised boundary separating the two countries, stretching from Gujarat to Jammu. Experts say that India’s actions are a clear signal that multiple groups are now in its crosshairs, and that Pakistan will not be able to ignore the strikes.
Ajay Bisaria, a former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan, told the BBC that what India did was a "Balakot plus response meant to establish deterrence, targeting known terrorist hubs, but accompanied by a strong de-escalatory message". However, experts warn that the risk of further escalation remains high, making this the "most dangerous" India-Pakistan crisis since 2002.
As the situation continues to deteriorate, diplomacy will come into play. "Pakistan’s response is sure to come," Mr Bisaria said. "The challenge would be to manage the next level of escalation. This is where crisis diplomacy will matter."
Pakistan-based experts like Ejaz Hussain, a Lahore-based political and military analyst, say Indian surgical strikes targeting locations such as Muridke and Bahawalpur were "largely anticipated given the prevailing tensions". Dr Hussain believes retaliatory strikes are likely, and that the situation could quickly spiral out of control.
Christopher Clary of the University at Albany in the US believes that given the scale of India’s strikes, "visible damage at key sites", and reported casualties, Pakistan is highly likely to retaliate. "Doing otherwise essentially would give India permission to strike Pakistan whenever Delhi feels aggrieved and would run contrary to the Pakistan military’s commitment to retaliating with ‘quid pro quo plus’," Mr Clary said.
Despite the rising tensions, some experts still hold out hope for de-escalation. "There is a decent chance we escape this crisis with just one round of reciprocal standoff strikes and a period of heightened firing along the Line of Control," Mr Clary said.
However, the risk of further escalation remains high, and the international community is watching with growing concern. As the situation continues to unfold, one thing is certain: the stakes are high, and the consequences of further escalation could be catastrophic.
The BBC has been reporting on the developing story, providing in-depth analysis and expert commentary. According to the BBC, India and Pakistan have a long and troubled history, with several previous escalations and de-escalations. The current crisis has sparked fears of a wider conflict, and the international community is urging restraint.
In 2016, after 19 Indian soldiers were killed in Uri, India launched "surgical strikes" across the LoC. In 2019, the Pulwama bombing, which left 40 Indian paramilitary personnel dead, prompted airstrikes deep into Balakot. Experts say that the current escalation is a clear signal that India is determined to take a harder line on terrorism.
As the situation continues to unfold, the BBC will provide ongoing coverage and analysis. The crisis has sparked fears of a wider conflict, and the international community is watching with growing concern.
