JP Morgan Maintains $60 Oil Price Forecast for 2025 Despite Rising Tensions
In a note published on Thursday, JP Morgan stated that it is maintaining its base-case oil price forecast for 2025, projecting that Brent crude will trade in the low-to-mid $60s. This forecast comes despite a sharp escalation in geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the US, and potentially Israel.
According to Oilprice.com, JP Morgan’s forecast is based on the assumption that diplomacy will prevail and that there will be no major disruption to oil supplies. However, the bank has flagged a potential range of $120-$130 per barrel in the event of worst-case outcomes, such as military conflict and a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of global oil flows.
The current situation is tense, with the IAEA formally declaring Iran in breach of nuclear non-proliferation obligations, a first in 20 years, after uncovering undeclared nuclear activity at multiple sites. Indirect US-Iran nuclear talks are set to resume on June 15 in Oman. Meanwhile, Israel is reportedly weighing unilateral military action against Iranian nuclear sites, even as President Trump pursues a framework deal. The US has already pulled non-essential personnel from embassies across the region.
Despite these escalations, JP Morgan notes that its base case still assumes diplomacy will hold, and that oil prices will remain supported by summer demand and low US inventories. However, come fall, macroeconomic headwinds and rising OPEC+ output are expected to weigh on prices.
As of midday in New York, Brent is trading near $69.54, with WTI at $68.07, roughly $4 above JP Morgan’s June fair value estimate of $66. This suggests that markets are already partially pricing in a risk premium.
“The backdrop is tense, with Iran’s nuclear programme and the US-Iran relationship at a critical juncture,” said Oilprice.com in its report. “However, we still see oil prices averaging $60 in 2026, but with a risk of a spike to $120-$130 per barrel if tensions escalate further.”
JP Morgan’s forecast is based on a careful analysis of the current market situation and the potential risks and uncertainties that could impact oil prices. The bank’s analysts believe that the current tensions in the Middle East are a major concern, but they also believe that diplomacy will prevail and that oil supplies will not be significantly disrupted.
In conclusion, JP Morgan’s decision to maintain its base-case oil price forecast for 2025 at $60 per barrel is based on a careful analysis of the current market situation and the potential risks and uncertainties that could impact oil prices. While the current tensions in the Middle East are a major concern, the bank’s analysts believe that diplomacy will prevail and that oil supplies will not be significantly disrupted.
According to Oilprice.com, the oil market is likely to remain volatile in the coming months, with a range of potential outcomes that could impact oil prices. However, JP Morgan’s forecast suggests that the bank believes that the current tensions in the Middle East will not lead to a significant disruption in oil supplies, and that oil prices will remain relatively stable in the near term.
The oil market is closely watching the situation in the Middle East, and any further escalation in tensions could lead to a significant increase in oil prices. However, for now, JP Morgan’s forecast suggests that the bank believes that diplomacy will prevail, and that oil prices will remain relatively stable.
As reported by Oilprice.com, the current situation in the Middle East is tense, and the oil market is likely to remain volatile in the coming months. However, JP Morgan’s forecast suggests that the bank believes that the current tensions will not lead to a significant disruption in oil supplies, and that oil prices will remain relatively stable in the near term.
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