Royal Ascot 2024: Lockinge Form Key in Red-Hot Queen Anne but Here’s Why You Shouldn’t Ignore This International Formline
The stage is set for Royal Ascot to explode into life with the red-hot Queen Anne, a Group 1 contest that has attracted a top-tier field. According to the Racing Post, six of the past seven winners of the Queen Anne have produced a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of 121 or higher.
In the past seven runnings of the Queen Anne, six horses produced a Racing Post Rating of 121 or higher. Five of these have already reached an RPR of at least 122. The Racing Post reports that four of those five, excluding international candidate Carl Spackler, clashed in the Lockinge last month.
The good news for those wishing to oppose Lockinge winner Lead Artist with Dancing Gemini, Rosallion, or Notable Speech, second, third, and fourth at Newbury, is the history of form from last month’s race flipping on its head at Ascot. Only six of the 25 Lockinge winners who attempted the follow-up won for a £1 level-stakes loss of £11.47, with the seconds faring slightly better (-£4.03, 5-22).
Lockinge thirds were worse still (0-20), but the overwhelming value has been with those who were fourth at Newbury. They are 4-11 for a significant level-stakes profit of +£29.80, a positive omen for Notable Speech admirers.
The fascination of this Queen Anne is illustrated by the ease with which a reasonable argument can be made for each of the Newbury four. Lead Artist may have enjoyed the run of the race, but he rallied once headed and should be suited by a stiffer mile. Dancing Gemini may have hit the front too soon after being drawn on the wing, and his progress is yet to stall.
Rosallion, so brilliant in the St James’s Palace last season, was returning from almost a year off, while last year’s 2,000 Guineas winner Notable Speech was likely to be undercooked first time out.
Over-concentration on the Lockinge could be risky, however. Sardinian Warrior would have deserved more than a passing mention after his gutsy defeat of Ascot specialist Docklands in the Paradise Stakes, but he was declared a non-runner on Monday.
Then we have Lake Forest, the highest-earning runner in the field. He may be sired by Norfolk winner No Nay Never, but there are several middle-distance performers on his page and this new distance could be the ticket to unlocking further improvement.
Form lines from overseas are often overlooked, but that could be a dangerous path to take in the case of Lake Forest’s 2024 Golden Eagle victory at Rosehill in Australia. Runner-up on that occasion was Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes favourite Lazzat, whom Lake Forest saw off when producing the kind of power-packed burst from off the pace that is synonymous with Group 1 success on the straight track at Ascot.
According to the Racing Post, Lake Forest’s Longchamp prep last month was also better than it appeared and, despite having a peak RPR of only 119, he may be the cat to throw among the Lockinge pigeons for a must-watch Queen Anne.
Rosallion has come on for Lockinge run says Levey
Sean Levey has a golden opportunity to get off to a flyer at Royal Ascot on Queen Anne favourite Rosallion. Trained by Richard Hannon, last year’s St James’s Palace Stakes winner is a general 5-2 shot to go two positions better than last month’s Lockinge third.
The four-year-old was beaten two and a half lengths by the reopposing Lead Artist at Newbury, but that was his first run since the royal meeting 12 months ago and regular partner Levey is confident of an improved performance.
“He’s brilliant to have him in the first race on day one as we’re straight into the fire,” said Levey. “I’m very excited because he’s come on from the Lockinge.”
As well as Lead Artist, Rosallion will also be taking on Dancing Gemini and Notable Speech, second and fourth respectively at Newbury.
Asked if the race will be run the same way, Levey said: “It might be similar to a degree, but it’s a whole different track. There are also some others who could change the whole aspect of how the race will be run.”
The views of various trainers have been reported by the Racing Post, with Ciaron Maher, trainer of Carl Spackler saying: “I feel very privileged and honoured to be given the opportunity to train a horse of this calibre for Mr [Yuesheng] Zhang and Yulong. The team and I are incredibly excited to race a genuine world-class horse on the world’s biggest stage and represent Australian racing.”
Roger Teal, trainer of Dancing Gemini said: “He’s ready to rock and roll. He’s in good shape and the track should suit. It’s a stiff mile, but Sandown is also like that and conditions should be in his favour. The form is there to be seen and obviously there will be a few horses coming forward, but all we can do is worry about him. We just want to get him there in one piece and what will be will be.”
Aidan O’Brien, trainer of Diego Velazquez said: “We’d have loved to have got a run into him. He was due to run at Leopardstown, but he had an incident in the stalls and had to be taken out. He’s done well over the last few weeks and it was always the intention to come here. I think he’ll run well, but I’d expect him to come forward nicely for it.”
Harry Eustace, trainer of Docklands said: “He seems in good form and loves the track, but it’s a very tough race compared to last year. We’re under no illusions about that, but we can’t not run in a mile race at Ascot. He’s fine after the last day, he didn’t have a hard race and seems fresh and well.”
Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Lead Artist said: “Lead Artist is very well after having a racecourse gallop at the July course last Wednesday. There’s a lot of depth to the race, as you’d expect, but he goes there in good shape and enjoys top of the ground.”
Charlie Appleby, trainer of Notable Speech said: “He comes into this in great order and we’re looking forward to seeing him on the straight track at Ascot. The Lockinge was his first start of the year, and he’s definitely come forward for the run. Conditions will suit and it looks a fantastic race to kick off the meeting.”
Ed Crisford, joint-trainer of Quddwah said: “He’s in great order and won nicely on his seasonal reappearance in France. It’s a championship race with some proper horses, but if he can improve as an older horse he won’t be too far off them.”
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