Myanmar’s Civil War: Could an Earthquake Shift the Balance of Power?
Bangkok, Thailand – As Myanmar slowly recovers from the devastating magnitude 7.7 earthquake that struck in March, killing thousands, an even greater catastrophe continues to shape the nation’s future – this one man-made. According to a report by Al Jazeera, Myanmar remains gripped by a civil war, and after four years of fighting, the military regime finds itself increasingly encircled.
The impact of the earthquake could prove decisive for the conflict in the coming year, reports Al Jazeera. Striking in Myanmar’s central Sagaing Region on March 28, the quake killed at least 3,649 people, with more than 5,000 injured and 145 still missing, according to figures from the military government. The seismic shock flattened houses, factories, Buddhist pagodas, apartment blocks, and brought down bridges and ripped up roads in Sagaing city and nearby Mandalay.
Tin Lin Aung, a former major in Myanmar’s army who defected to the resistance movement in 2022, told Al Jazeera that the earthquake disrupted electricity supplies to factories producing munitions for the military. In a clear sign that military supplies are stretched, bullet and artillery casings recently captured from government forces bear this year’s manufacturing date. “When I was in the military, we used to joke that some of the bullets were older than us,” he said. “Now they are being used straight away.”
The reported interruption to the military’s ammunition production comes as areas the army still controls in Myanmar are surrounded on almost all sides by longstanding ethnic armed groups and newer armed opposition forces, notes Al Jazeera. Despite this, the military maintains an iron grip on the country’s major cities and core critical infrastructure. Hemmed into urban strongholds, the military has tried to reverse its losses through indiscriminate air strikes and burning villages in rural areas – a campaign the United Nations suspects involves war crimes.
Sagaing city was devastated by the quake and it remains under military control, while much of the surrounding countryside is governed by a patchwork of resistance militias – such as the People’s Defence Force (PDF) – which are loosely coordinated by the opposition National Unity Government (NUG), reports Al Jazeera. The NUG declared a truce in earthquake-affected areas until April 20, except for “defensive operations”, yet the military’s operations have continued. According to the NUG, the Myanmar military’s aerial and artillery attacks killed at least 72 civilians between the quake striking on March 28 until April 8.
A Sagaing-based PDF fighter who requested anonymity told Al Jazeera that some rebel units had pivoted to relief efforts in central Myanmar even though their military adversaries were taking advantage of the lull in battle. “Since the quake, the military has used the Sagaing-Monywa road more confidently because of the truce,” she said. But PDF forces in Sagaing expect fighting to intensify after the April truce is over. “The PDF has more momentum than the military here,” she told Al Jazeera, adding that the NUG is now “coordinating better with ethnic armed organisations”.
Regional security analyst Anthony Davis said he doubted the earthquake would distract the military from its strategic objectives, adding that most soldiers had stayed in their garrisons rather than help with relief efforts, reports Al Jazeera. “The military isn’t taking time off to save people. They’ll keep up the air strikes and, where possible, launch ground offensives to weaken the PDF,” Davis said. However, it is western Rakhine State – largely spared from the earthquake – that is still the most consequential battleground currently, he said.
In eastern Myanmar’s Kayah State, a senior resistance commander told Al Jazeera that the earthquake had underscored the suffering of displaced communities who “bear the brunt of the ongoing wars”. “The side who’s willing to care for the people can sway public opinion and will succeed in the coming battles,” he said. In the north and northwest, the military is on the back foot. The Kachin Independence Army captured Indaw town in the northern Sagaing Region on April 7 after an eight-month siege, despite declaring its own post-quake truce.
Political analyst Kyaw Hsan Hlaing said the military is still grappling with the aftermath of the earthquake and that may create openings for the Arakan Army (AA) and others to seize more towns, reports Al Jazeera. “However, any such gains would likely be incremental, as the military’s longstanding control and ability to adapt, especially in regions like Bago and Magwe, even under crisis conditions remain significant,” he said. “In the long term, the earthquake is unlikely to fundamentally shift the balance of power in Myanmar,” he said.
While the earthquake has not dealt a decisive blow to military rule, the quake has delivered a psychic shock to the regime’s generals, notes Al Jazeera. In a country where astrology and superstition guide the highest political decisions, many interpret the natural disaster as a cosmic rebuke against Myanmar’s military leadership. “They see this earthquake as divine intervention – punishment for the mistakes of the king,” said former major Tin Lin Aung.
Richard Horsey, senior Myanmar adviser at the International Crisis Group, said even if Myanmar military’s commander-in-chief Senior General Min Aung Hlaing dismisses these supernatural interpretations, the fact that his inner circle takes them seriously creates real vulnerability, reports Al Jazeera. Given the scale of the quake, it would likely affect the civil war – “but in ways that are hard to predict”, he said.
Criticised for its ineffectual and disinterested response to earthquake victims, along with continued attacks at a time of national emergency, the military’s poor reputation has plummeted even further in the eyes of the people and its adversaries, notes Al Jazeera. The powerful ethnic armed groups involved in the conflict will probably be even more unwilling to negotiate for peace with the military following the quake. “Even if you could get a spirit of compromise, which seems not to exist”, few would believe the military’s sincerity in adhering to any peace deal or ceasefire document.
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