Premier League Top Five Odds Update: Predictions and Analysis
As the Premier League season nears its climax, the battle for a top-five spot and a coveted UEFA Champions League place has become increasingly enthralling. According to a recent report by The Athletic, Liverpool are on the brink of securing the title, and the focus has shifted to the five clubs vying for a spot in the top five.
In a weekly stock report, The Athletic analysed the prospects of Newcastle United, Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, and Aston Villa. The publication noted that Newcastle are one of the most unpredictable sides in the league this season, with Eddie Howe’s men being “flat-track bullies” – beating up on the weaker teams while struggling against stronger opponents. The Magpies have a favourable schedule, with two of their final five matches against Chelsea and Arsenal, and The Athletic suggested that a lack of motivation from Arsenal and a home fixture against Chelsea may be enough to keep Newcastle in the driver’s seat for a Champions League spot.
The Athletic reported that Newcastle are currently at 2/5 to secure a top-five spot, with a two-point lead in fifth place. However, the publication cautioned that their upcoming match against Chelsea is a “toss-up”, and it’s best to stay away from those odds.
Manchester City, on the other hand, have virtually assured themselves of Champions League football next season, according to The Athletic. The Citizens have a bunch of middling sides to face on their run-in, and Pep Guardiola’s side will be looking to secure a top-four spot. The publication noted that City’s recent win over Aston Villa was a massive boost, with Matheus Nunes scoring a 94th-minute goal to seal a 2-1 victory.
The Athletic also analysed the prospects of Nottingham Forest, who have received a fortunate result by securing a 2-1 victory over a broken Tottenham side. Despite being favourites for a Champions League spot, The Athletic noted that Forest are the 12th-best team in the league this season, based on their underlying metrics. The publication suggested that it’s not worth investing in Forest to continue outrunning their numbers.
Chelsea are another team in the running for a top-five spot, and The Athletic noted that they have to balance a continental competition with two matches against Newcastle and Forest. The publication highlighted that Cole Palmer’s goal drought – he hasn’t scored since January 14 – is still ongoing, but his underperformance should spark hope. With 14 goals on 15.8 xG, Palmer’s due for some positive regression, and The Athletic suggested that even money for a team that controls their own destiny with a superstar player who is due is a good spot to buy.
Aston Villa, who have used the January transfer window effectively to morph from a middling side to one of the best in the league, are also in the running for a Champions League spot. However, The Athletic noted that the problem for the Villans is that they’re simply running out of matches. With just four games left, there is massive pressure to clean the slate, and The Athletic suggested that capturing 12 points would put Villa on 69, which should be enough to secure a Champions League spot.
In conclusion, The Athletic’s analysis suggests that the battle for a top-five spot in the Premier League is going to be intense, with several teams still in the running. Newcastle, Manchester City, Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, and Aston Villa all have their strengths and weaknesses, and it remains to be seen who will secure a coveted Champions League spot.
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(Photo: Stu Forster / Getty Images)
This article is based on a report by The Athletic, and can be found at https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6304401/2025/04/24/premier-league-top-five-odds-update-predictions/.
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