NHL Stanley Cup Final Predictions: Playoff Analysis and 2026 Olympic Outlook
The 2025 Stanley Cup Final is set to begin with a thrilling matchup between the Florida Panthers and the Edmonton Oilers. According to a survey conducted by The Athletic, the series is expected to be a closely contested one, with 51.5% of respondents predicting an Oilers win, while 48.4% believe the Panthers will emerge victorious.
Stanley Cup Predictions
- Lazerus: A coin flip sounds just about right, though I still lean Florida based on the Sergei Bobrovsky vs. Stuart "Box of Chocolates" Skinner. Also, if Darnell Nurse or Evan Bouchard try to break anyone’s foot in the final, something tells me Florida will actually respond.
- Gentille: I told myself at the start of all this that whichever team won the first-round matchup between Florida and Tampa Bay would make the final, and that I couldn’t trust Skinner to hold up over the course of a full postseason. That all still checks out — but most of all, I’m done picking against the Panthers until they lose another series. They have to show that they can’t do it.
- Granger: Tampa Bay looked like perhaps the most complete team in the league entering the playoffs, and the Panthers steamrolled them. Carolina was playing so well, I believed in the Hurricanes more than ever before heading into the Eastern Conference final, and Florida demolished them. Edmonton is a great team, but this Florida squad has made a habit of making great teams look bad.
- Mirtle: All right, I’ll admit it, I’m going Oilers in seven. Something about the way Edmonton has decimated three good teams in a row just says team of destiny to me this year. Or more like a player of destiny, given how focused and determined Connor McDavid looks.
- Goldman: I have picked against the Oilers every round and have been wrong, but … I still am picking against them here. I think the series goes seven again, and maybe in less dramatic fashion than last year. The Zach Hyman injury is what holds me back, despite McDavid hitting that next level in Round 3 that I think we were all waiting to see.
Conn Smythe Trophy Predictions
According to The Athletic‘s survey, the top picks for the Conn Smythe Trophy are:
| Player | Percent of Vote |
|---|---|
| Aleksander Barkov | 54.5% |
| Connor McDavid | 24.2% |
| Sam Bennett | 12.1% |
- Lazerus: Sam Bennett leads the postseason with 10 goals and influences the game as much as any player on the Panthers. Perhaps no individual player is a better fit for his team than Bennett and the Panthers. If he pops a game-winning goal or two in this series, we’re all going to look pretty silly when he wins the Conn Smythe.
- Gentille: I went with Aleksander Barkov. That took some degree of projection, but he’s the leading scorer on the team I think is going to win the series, and he’s a name-brand guy who’s already had a couple of major moments in the playoffs thus far, most recently in the third period of Florida’s clincher against the Hurricanes.
- Granger: Bobrovsky leads all goalies with 40 playoff wins over the last three seasons. The next-closest is Jake Oettinger with 29. He also leads all goalies with 36.71 goals saved above expected over that span, more than 10 clear of the next goalie. If Florida wins, he should get his Conn Smythe to sit next to his two Vezina trophies.
Playoff Officiating
The Athletic‘s survey revealed that 54.5% of respondents graded the playoff officiating as a "C", while 12.1% gave it a "D" and 3.0% a failing grade.
- "As bad as usual. Inconsistent rule book with the added bonus of prison rules in high-leverage games. By ‘letting them play,’ the officials create an advantage to the team that breaks the most rules when the games matter most. No other sport treats the rule book as optional."
- "They’re officiating the score and situation, not the rules. A penalty is a penalty; it doesn’t matter when it happened in a game or if a team is ahead or behind. This isn’t new. It’s always this way. And it’s no secret the whistles will be in Saskatchewan and Cuba instead of Edmonton and Sunrise for the Cup Final. The ‘let them play’ motto is nonsense. Let them play under the rules."
NHL Playoff Format
A significant 87.9% of The Athletic‘s respondents believe the NHL should change its playoff format, with many calling for a return to the 1 vs. 8 format.
- Lazerus: Conferences mean so little these days. Let’s just go 1-16 already.
- Gentille: I also want to see a test drive of a seeds 7-10, NBA-style play-in tournament. It rewards better teams, creates stakes down the stretch, adds revenue and works well as a TV event.
2026 Olympic Gold Predictions
According to The Athletic‘s survey, Canada is the top pick to win Olympic gold in 2026, with 57.6% of the vote.
- Lazerus: I still don’t trust Canada’s goaltending, but Connor Hellebuyck in the second round and Jake Oettinger in the third round didn’t exactly fill Americans with confidence, either.
- Gentille: Hellebuyck and Oettinger could’ve gotten their teams swept and I still wouldn’t have picked against the U.S. here.
Stanley Cup Predictions for 2026
- Lazerus: This was harder than I expected. While I’m sure Florida and Edmonton will be in the mix again, it’s tough to pick yet another deep run for each of them. Picking Dallas or Carolina, as usual, feels like Charlie Brown trying to kick a football. And after that, every team has a lot of question marks. It could be a wide-open field next year. Or it could be between the same few teams again.
- Gentille: Someday, we’ll all be right about the Stars.
The Stanley Cup Final between the Panthers and Oilers promises to be an exciting series, with many factors contributing to the outcome. The Athletic‘s survey provides valuable insights into the perspectives of various NHL experts and analysts.
