Box Office Predictions: "Sinners" Set to Dominate Again as New Releases Hit Theatres
This weekend, the North American box office is expected to be dominated once again by the R-rated vampire thriller "Sinners", as three new movies open in theatres. According to a report by Variety, the film is projected to earn $25 million to $30 million in its sophomore frame, following a successful opening weekend of $48 million.
The film, directed by Ryan Coogler and starring Michael B. Jordan, has so far generated $55 million domestically and $71 million internationally, against a production budget of $90 million. As noted by Variety, this marks the biggest debut for an original film since 2019, and the film is expected to continue its success this weekend.
In addition to "Sinners", three new releases are set to hit theatres this weekend. Ben Affleck’s "The Accountant 2" is aiming for $20 million to $25 million from 3,610 theatres. The sequel to 2016’s "The Accountant" is backed by Amazon MGM, and is expected to build on the success of the first film, which opened to $24.7 million and ended its theatrical run with $155 million globally. As reported by Variety, the second film cost a hefty $80 million, before factoring in global marketing expenses.
Gavin O’Connor returned to direct the R-rated "The Accountant 2", which picks up as Affleck’s forensic accountant Christian Wolff teams up with his estranged brother (Jon Bernthal) to track down mysterious assassins after uncovering a deadly conspiracy. Critics have praised the sequel, with Variety’s Owen Gleiberman saying the follow-up film improves upon the first. In his review, he called "The Accountant 2" an "agreeably loopy hyperviolent good time".
In addition to "The Accountant 2", Disney is re-releasing "Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith" for the film’s 20th anniversary. Based on advanced ticket sales, the space opera sequel is expected to generate a sizable $20 million to $22 million over the weekend. Another newcomer, Sony’s R-rated horror film "Until Dawn", is targeting $8 million to $10 million from 3,000 venues. The movie, which cost $15 million, is inspired by the video game of the same name and follows a friend group trapped in a "Groundhog Day"-esque time loop as they’re stalked and murdered by a masked killer.
Elsewhere, A24’s fantastical "The Legend of Ochi" is expected to bring in single digits from 1,150 venues in its domestic debut. Isaiah Saxon directed the $10 million film about a shy farm girl named Yuri ("News of the World" breakout Helena Zengel) who lives on a remote island and forms a close bond with a wounded baby ochi — an elusive animal species she was raised to fear. As noted by Variety’s review by Carlos Aguilar, critical sentiment has been positive, with Aguilar praising the film’s striking visuals.
According to Comscore, the box office is slowly regaining steam after a sluggish start to 2025. Revenues are 5% ahead of last year, while still trailing 29% behind the pre-COVID 2019. Upcoming releases, including Marvel’s "Thunderbolts" (May 2) and Tom Cruise’s "Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning" and Disney’s "Lilo & Stitch" remake (May 23), look to keep up momentum and fill auditoriums.
As reported by Variety, the success of these films will be closely watched by industry insiders, as they look to gauge the health of the box office in the coming months. With a range of new releases hitting theatres this weekend, it will be interesting to see which films emerge as the top performers.
The box office is also expected to be boosted by the release of several high-profile films in the coming weeks. As noted by Variety, these releases will be crucial in determining the overall performance of the box office in 2025. With this in mind, all eyes will be on the box office this weekend, as Variety predicts a strong showing from "Sinners" and the new releases.
Sources:
Variety – Box Office: ‘Sinners’ Lead Box Office Again as ‘The Accountant 2’ and ‘Until Dawn’ Debut
