Canada’s Pivotal Election: A Choice Between Sovereignty and Trump’s Influence
In a surprising move, US President Donald Trump has intervened in Canada’s parliamentary election, calling on Canadians to elect a leader who will make the country the US’s 51st state, saying "it was meant to be". The comments came just hours after polls opened in the highly anticipated election, which has been overshadowed by Trump’s attacks on Canadian sovereignty and his threats to impose tariffs on the US trading partner.
According to a report by the Financial Times, Trump’s intervention is likely to be welcomed by the Liberal party of Mark Carney, which has made Canadian sovereignty and opposition to Trump core themes of its pitch to voters. As the Financial Times reports, one of Carney’s advisers described Trump’s post as a "gift".
The election, which has been billed as a pivotal choice in the face of Trump’s taunts, will be watched across the west for signs that a foreign leader who has been vocal in opposing Trump can succeed electorally. The question of leadership, rather than party choice or domestic politics, has dominated the contest between Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, two men offering very different paths for Canada.
As quoted in the Financial Times, Carney said in a final election message, "The crisis in the United States doesn’t stop at their borders. But this is Canada — and we decide what happens here." This message is seen as a clear attempt to distance himself from Trump’s influence and to emphasise the importance of Canadian sovereignty.
Meanwhile, Poilievre has promoted a "common sense" agenda by tying Carney to the previous Liberal prime minister Justin Trudeau, who led Canada for nine years before resigning in January. As the Financial Times reports, Poilievre said at a rally in British Columbia on Saturday, "We cannot afford a fourth Liberal term. We need a change."
The election has taken a dramatic turn, with Trump’s aggressive comments on Canada and his tariffs imposed on one of the US’s closest commercial partners bringing a wave of patriotism across the country and transforming the race. A once certain Conservative victory under Poilievre has shifted to an "unpredictable contest", with Carney’s Liberals gaining significant momentum in recent months, according to David Coletto, chief executive of Abacus polling.
As the Financial Times notes, the significance of this election, amplified by the stark contrast in leaders and the remarkable surge in the Liberal party’s popularity, is expected to result in high voter turnout. Elections Canada, the government agency that oversees the vote, reported that a record 7.3mn Canadians had already voted, a 25 per cent increase from the previous election in 2021.
The final push by both sides was derailed by the death of 11 people in Vancouver, on Canada’s west coast, on Saturday night, after a man drove his car into a Filipino street festival. Police have ruled out terrorism. Carney temporarily suspended his campaign and headed to Vancouver for a meeting with the Filipino community.
The outcome of the election is far from certain, with 21mn registered voters yet to cast a ballot on Monday. At the centre of the contest is a battle for marginal seats needed to secure the 172 districts required to form a majority government. Both the 338Canada project and the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation’s poll tracker, an aggregate of opinion polls, show the Liberals comfortably winning.
Canada’s voting stations will be open for 12 hours from Monday morning, with 343 electoral districts up for grabs. A result is expected late on Monday night. As the Financial Times reports, this election will have far-reaching implications for Canada and its relationship with the US, and will be closely watched by leaders around the world.
