UK Twice as Likely to Have Hot Summer This Year, Says Met Office
The UK is twice as likely as usual to experience a hot summer this year, according to predictions from the Met Office. The forecast, which covers June, July, and August, suggests that the country can expect above-average temperatures, with an increased risk of heatwaves.
This latest outlook comes on the back of the UK’s sunniest spring on record, with 630 hours of sunshine recorded since the start of March. The period has also been the driest spring for more than a century, with temperatures soaring to 8C above the average for the time of year on the last day of meteorological spring.
According to the Met Office, the current three-month outlook shows an increased chance of a hot summer, consistent with the UK’s warming climate. “While the current three-month outlook shows an increased chance of a hot summer, the temperature signals for this summer are similar to those for recent years and consistent with our warming climate,” the Met Office stated.
The Met Office’s predictions are based on an assessment of broad weather patterns across the UK and take into account recent global weather trends. The outlook provides risk assessments for unusual temperatures, rainfall, and wind for government contingency planners and businesses.
Nicola Maxey, a spokesperson for the Met Office, explained that the outlook is not a public forecast, but rather a tool for planners and businesses to prepare for potential weather conditions. “It’s not produced as a public forecast for people to look at and work out whether we can have a barbecue in August or a garden party in July,” she said. “At this time of year, global signals influencing UK weather are typically weak. However, consistent with our warming climate and as we have seen over recent years, the current outlook indicates an increased likelihood of above-average temperatures this summer.”
The Met Office’s outlook suggests that it is 2.3 times more likely than normal that the UK will experience a hot summer, with average temperatures ranging from 10-17C across the country. The south-east of England is likely to experience higher averages of 16-17C.
This prediction is in line with a recent trend of unusually hot summers in the UK. According to the Met Office’s State of the UK Climate report, summers in the UK have become warmer, wetter, and sunnier in recent decades due to climate change. Observations show that extremes of temperature in the UK have been affected much more than average temperature, with the number of “hot” days (28C) more than doubling and “very hot” days (30C) more than tripling between 2014-23 compared with 1961-90.
The ongoing extreme marine heatwave in north-west European waters may further boost temperatures, although the added warmth and moisture in the air could potentially lead to more intense summer storms. Many water companies will be hoping for a wet summer to help avoid the need for water usage restrictions, with the Environment Agency declaring drought status for the north-west of England following the driest start to spring in 69 years.
As the UK prepares for a potentially hot summer, the Met Office is warning of the increased risk of heatwaves and extreme weather events. The organisation’s predictions are based on the latest scientific research and are designed to help planners and businesses prepare for the potential impacts of climate change.
The Met Office has also highlighted the need for continued monitoring of the UK’s climate, with Nicola Maxey stating that “we could see more hot days and warm nights than usual, we could also see a mix of cooler days and less extreme warmth.” As the UK looks ahead to the summer months, one thing is certain – the country’s climate is continuing to change, with significant implications for the environment, businesses, and the public.
The Met Office’s three-month outlook is a critical tool for planners and businesses, providing essential information on the potential risks and impacts of climate change. As the UK continues to experience the effects of a warming climate, the Met Office’s predictions will remain an essential resource for those looking to prepare for the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
According to The Guardian, which first reported on the Met Office’s predictions, the UK’s weather patterns are being influenced by a range of factors, including climate change and global weather trends.
Source: The Guardian
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