UK Unemployment Rate Rises to Highest Level in Almost Four Years
The UK’s unemployment rate has risen to its highest level in almost four years, according to official figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The rate stood at 4.5% in the first three months of this year, up 0.2% on the previous quarter and the highest reading since summer 2021. This increase in unemployment is a clear indication that the UK’s jobs market is continuing to slow.
The ONS’s labour force survey, which is used to measure unemployment, has been widely criticised for its collapsing response rates. However, the ONS has published an update alongside Tuesday’s data citing “clear improvement”. The higher joblessness rate emerged in a slew of UK labour market data released on Tuesday that pointed to a slowdown, amid increases to employer national insurance contributions (NICs) and the national living wage.
According to the ONS, the number of vacancies in the economy was down 5.3% in the three months to the end of April. There were 761,000 job vacancies in that period, a 131,000 drop on a year ago, with the construction sector experiencing the biggest decline. As The Guardian reports, “The higher joblessness rate emerged in a slew of UK labour market data released on Tuesday that pointed to a slowdown, amid increases to employer national insurance contributions (NICs) and the national living wage.”
Pay growth also weakened, the ONS said, with regular earnings up 5.6% in the three months to March, down from 5.9% in the previous three-month period – although that remains high by historic standards. Modestly weaker wage growth is likely to reassure the Bank of England’s monetary policy committee, which cut interest rates by a quarter point last week to 4.25% but has expressed concern about the continued strength of pay.
Thomas Pugh, an economist at the consultancy RSM UK, said: “Overall, the labour market is clearly cooling, which should feed into slowing wage growth through this year. But it isn’t collapsing. The hawks on the MPC will still be too concerned about strong wage growth to consider going for another rate cut in June.” The Bank of England’s chief economist, Huw Pill, underlined his concerns about wage growth on Tuesday, suggesting it might mean rates have to stay higher for longer.
As reported by The Guardian, speaking at a conference at the London School of Economics, Pill said he was concerned about the upside risks to inflation, which might get stuck above the Bank’s 2% target and could “mean that the response of monetary policy, in order to ensure that we get back to our target within a reasonable cycle, needs to be somewhat more aggressive or more persistent in itself”. In another sign of a slowing labour market, Tuesday data showed a decline in the number of payrolled jobs, by 47,000, or 0.2%, between February and March – although the ONS said the overall employment rate, measured using the labour force survey, was “largely unchanged” at 75%.
Stephen Evans, the chief executive of the Learning and Work Institute, said: “The labour market continues to slow, with the largest employment falls seen in retail and hospitality.” He added that these were also the sectors where pay growth had been fastest, as the minimum wage rise comes in. “Time will tell whether this is an indicator of a broader slowdown or a temporary effect,” he said. The ONS said the economic inactivity rate, which has been a consistent concern of policymakers, was slightly lower, at 21.4% of the working age population – although it remains above the levels seen before the Covid pandemic.
The Bank of England has been monitoring closely the impact on jobs and salaries of Rachel Reeves’s £25bn increase in employer NICs. The rise, which took effect last month, came alongside a 6.7% increase in the national living wage, prompting some business lobby groups to warn about rising payroll costs. Michael Stull, the managing director of the recruitment company ManpowerGroup UK, said: “The latest labour market data confirms the sentiment of most British employers, whose confidence remains stunned against a backdrop of significant national change and global uncertainty.”
The ONS is facing an independent inquiry into longstanding problems with the quality of its data, including the labour force survey. The national statistician, Ian Diamond, stepped down last week, citing health concerns. As the UK’s labour market continues to slow, it remains to be seen how these changes will impact the broader economy.
The data released by the ONS has significant implications for the UK’s economic policy. As reported by The Guardian, “The ONS’s labour force survey, which is used to measure unemployment, has been widely criticised for its collapsing response rates.” The UK’s unemployment rate is now at its highest level in almost four years, and it is clear that the labour market is continuing to slow. This slowdown is likely to have significant implications for the UK’s economic growth and monetary policy.
Original source: The Guardian – UK unemployment rises – ONS job vacancies.
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